Chelsea visits Southampton in what promises to be an entertaining game on Saturday. Southampton, coming off a 1-1 road draw against Leeds United on April 2 while Chelsea lost 4-1 at home against Brentford on April 2. Chelsea is in third place in the Premier League standings with 59 points in 29 games while Southampton is in 12th place with 36 points in 30 games.
The player to watch in this game is Mason Mount, who has eight goals and seven assists in 25 Premier League games this season. AccuScore gives Mount a 25.58 percent chance to score against Southampton. He has 72 SCA and 10 GCA in 25 Premier League games this season.
FBRef defines SCA as “the two offensive actions leading directly to a shot, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” GCA is “the two offensive actions leading directly to a goal, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Southampton: 4.40
• Chelsea: 1.85
• Draw: 3.75
Spread
• Southampton: -0.5, -1: 1.83
• Chelsea: +0.5, +1: 2.11
Total
• Over 2.5: 1.99
• Under 2.5: 1.91
Key Points to Consider
Last 5: Southampton, coming off a 1-1 road draw against Leeds United on April 2, have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 Premier League games.
Chelsea, coming off a 4-1 home loss against Brentford on April 2, have 4 wins, 1 loss and 0 draws in their last 5 Premier League games.
Momentum: Southampton has been on a downward trend — with 1 win in their last 3 Premier League games.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on October 2, 2021 and Chelsea won 3-1.
Projected Leaders
For Southampton, Che Adams has a 17.8 percent chance to score. He averages 1.07 shots overall per sim, 0.68 shots on goal per and 0.19 goals per sim.
For Chelsea, Mason Mount has a 25.58 percent chance to net the ball. He averages 1.33 shots overall per sim, 0.73 shots on goal per and 0.29 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Chelsea Moneyline.
Four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick on Chelsea in this one. Average score in simulations is Chelsea 1.41 to Southampton 0.87.
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