Liverpool gets set to host Manchester City at Anfield Wednesday, looking for a result to reach the Champions League semifinals for the first time in ten years. Liverpool defeated Man City 4-3 earlier in January to hand City its only Premier League loss of the season.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
• Liverpool to win: 2.89
• Draw: 3.61
• Man City to win: 2.46
• OVER 2.5: 1.81
• UNDER 2.5: 2.09
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.61 — indicate there’s about a 27-to-28 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 25 percent of matches, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.98 – 1.35, in favor of Liverpool.
Head-to-Head: Liverpool have already defeated Manchester City at Anfield, a 4-3 win earlier in January in Premier League action.
Clean Sheets: Liverpool have kept clean sheets in their last three home matches. City have kept clean sheets in three of their last four road matches games and have won said matches at an aggregate score of 11-1.
• Liverpool are undefeated in their last 12 Champions League matches.
• Liverpool have recorded a clean sheet in five of their last six Champions League matches.
• The total has gone OVER 2.5 goals in five of Manchester City’s last six matches.
Sergio Aguero leads the way for Man City in the simulations, averaging about 3 shots overall, 0.8 shots on goal per sim, and 0.46 goals per sim; he has about a 37 percent chance of netting the ball.
Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah each have about a 45-to-46 percent chance of scoring for Liverpool, both averaging 0.60+ goals per sim.
We’re always interested when odds and AccuScore sim data are on different sides of the money line. The odds — at 2.89 — indicate Liverpool is the underdog with about a 34-to-35 percent chance of winning. They win, however, over 50 percent of AccuScore simulated matches, suggesting a ton of value on the home side. The Liverpool pick is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
Liverpool have only lost one of their 23 home matches this season.
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