We’re always interested when simulation data and odds-makers have fairly different outlooks on a matchup. That’s exactly what we’ve got in this weekend’s fixture at Selhurst Park between Sheffield United and Crystal Palace.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Crystal Palace: 3.26
• Draw: 3.05
• Sheffield United: 2.53

Spread
• Crystal Palace +0.5: 1.81
• Sheffield United -0.5: 2.13

Total
• Over 2: 2.03
• Under 2: 1.87

Key Points to Consider

Last 6: Crystal Palace, coming off a 0-2 home loss vs Southampton, have 2 losses and 4 draws in their last six overall. Sheffield, coming off a 2-0 win over Millwall in the FA Cup, have 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw in their last six overall.

Some Numbers: Crystal Palace is No. 7 in the league with 6 clean sheets. Sheffield is No. 5 in the league with 523 crosses so far. Not an easy team to defend with their passing ability.

Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up on Aug. 18, 2019 when Sheffield won, 1-0.

Projected Leaders

For Sheffield United, Oliver McBurnie has a 19 percent chance to net the ball this weekend. McBurnie averages 1.14 shots overall per sim, 0.49 shots on goal per and 0.22 goals per sim.

For Crystal Palace, Jordan Ayew has a 31 percent chance to score. Ayew averages 1.73 shots overall, 0.59 shots on goal per, and 0.36 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Crystal Palace to win.

Odds indicate Palace have about a 30 percent chance to win, and Sheffield has a 38-to-39 percent chance to win. Palace wins 45+ percent of simulations, suggesting quite a bit of value on a team that’s technically the underdog in most books.

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