Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Chelsea: 1.20
• Draw: 7.37
• Cardiff City: 16.32
• Chelsea -2: 1.97
• Cardiff City +2: 1.96
• OVER 3: 1.88
• UNDER 3: 2.02
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 7.37 — indicate there’s a 13.5 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 17 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the draw, but not much.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.52 – 0.82, in favor of Chelsea.
Won’t Be Easy: All signs point to a Chelsea victory, but it won’t be a walk in the park. Althouth Cardiff haven’t found much success on offense yet this season, their back line has been strong defensively.
X-Factor: Marcos Alonso has been dominant to start the season. The defensive wing-back already has two assists and one goal in four appearances.
Head-to-Head: Chelsea and Cardiff have faced off in league action only twice before — way back in the 2013-2014 season. Chelsea won the first matchup at home, 4-1, followed by a 2-1 victory on the road.
Chelsea: Arrizabalaga, Alonso, Luiz, Rudiger, Azpilicueta, Kante, Jorginho, Barkley, Pedro, Hazard, Morata
Cardiff: Etheridge, Manga, Morrison, Bamba, Bennett, Arter, Gunnarsson, Hoilett, Camarasa, Reid, Ward
Daniel Ward has the best probability to net the ball for Cardiff City at a 23 percent chance. He averages 0.84 shots overall per sim, 0.46 shots on goal per, and 0.26 goals per sim.
For Chelsea, we’ll have our eyes on Eden Hazard who has a 52.5 percent chance to score. He averages 3.36 shots overall per sim, 1.67 shots on goal per, and 0.74 goals per sim.
Chelsea to win.
Odds — at 1.20 — indicate there’s a 83 percent chance Chelsea wins this match. They win over 73 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting similar confidence on the pick.
There’s some side value on the draw and for Cardiff to be more competitive than odds suggest, but not enough to go away from the favorite. In AccuScore sims, Cardiff — on average — stays within a spread of +1.70 goals.