Chelsea get set to host Cardiff City this Saturday at Stamford Bridge this Saturday having yet to drop a point this season. Cardiff are still on the hunt for their first win of the season.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Chelsea: 1.20
• Draw: 7.37
• Cardiff City: 16.32
Spread
• Chelsea -2: 1.97
• Cardiff City +2: 1.96
Total
• OVER 3: 1.88
• UNDER 3: 2.02
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 7.37 — indicate there’s a 13.5 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 17 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the draw, but not much.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.52 – 0.82, in favor of Chelsea.
Won’t Be Easy: All signs point to a Chelsea victory, but it won’t be a walk in the park. Althouth Cardiff haven’t found much success on offense yet this season, their back line has been strong defensively.
X-Factor: Marcos Alonso has been dominant to start the season. The defensive wing-back already has two assists and one goal in four appearances.
Head-to-Head: Chelsea and Cardiff have faced off in league action only twice before — way back in the 2013-2014 season. Chelsea won the first matchup at home, 4-1, followed by a 2-1 victory on the road.
Starting Lineups
Chelsea: Arrizabalaga, Alonso, Luiz, Rudiger, Azpilicueta, Kante, Jorginho, Barkley, Pedro, Hazard, Morata
Cardiff: Etheridge, Manga, Morrison, Bamba, Bennett, Arter, Gunnarsson, Hoilett, Camarasa, Reid, Ward
Projected Leaders
Daniel Ward has the best probability to net the ball for Cardiff City at a 23 percent chance. He averages 0.84 shots overall per sim, 0.46 shots on goal per, and 0.26 goals per sim.
For Chelsea, we’ll have our eyes on Eden Hazard who has a 52.5 percent chance to score. He averages 3.36 shots overall per sim, 1.67 shots on goal per, and 0.74 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Chelsea to win.
Odds — at 1.20 — indicate there’s a 83 percent chance Chelsea wins this match. They win over 73 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting similar confidence on the pick.
Value Pick
Cardiff +2
There’s some side value on the draw and for Cardiff to be more competitive than odds suggest, but not enough to go away from the favorite. In AccuScore sims, Cardiff — on average — stays within a spread of +1.70 goals.
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