Barcelona hosts Chelsea in what is a must-watch fixture in this week’s slate. Lionel Messi’s 75th-minute equalizer at Stamford Bridge in the first leg (1-1) made it quite the uphill battle for Chelsea in the second and final leg.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Spread
• Barcelona to win: 1.43
• Draw: 4.95
• Chelsea to win: 7.78
Total
• OVER 2.5: 1.66
• UNDER 2.5: 2.31
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 4.95 — indicate about a 20 percent chance of happening. Accuscore sims have a draw in 20 percent of matches, suggesting no added value on the pick.
The average score in sims is 1.98 – 0.71, in favor of Barcelona.
Barca on the Road vs at Home: Barcelona has been relatively sub-par on the road this season in the Champions League. They drew 0-0 at Olympiakos and Juventus, and notched a 1-0 win over Sporting Club thanks to an own goal. They have just two wins in their last seven matches on the road, going scoreless in four of those seven matches.
Barcelona have drawn their last 4 home matches against Chelsea in all competitions.
Chelsea Must Capitalize: With attacking talent like Willian, Hazard and Alvaro Morata/Olivier Giroud, Antonio Conte has to find a way to at least finish regular time in a draw — considering the level of scoring prowess he has on the roster.
Head-to-Head: Chelsea are undefeated in their last nine matches against Barcelona in all competitions.
Betting on the Total: UNDER 2.5 at 2.31 indicates a 43 percent chance of happening. The total combined score stays below 2.5 in about 50-to-51 percent of AccuScore simulated matches, suggesting some value on the UNDER.
Projected Leaders
Morata is projected to lead the way for Chelsea, averaging over 4 shots per sim. He has a 25 percent chance of netting the ball, with 0.96 shots on goal per sim and 0.29 goals per sim.
Messi averages about 5 shots overall per sim with a 66 percent chance of scoring. He averages over 1 goal per sim.
Messi missed the 2-0 win over Malaga, but is expected to be back in the lineup against Chelsea.
Analyst’s Pick
Barcelona.
The odds — at 1.43 — indicate Barcelona has a 69 percent chance of winning. AccuScore sim data has them winning about 67 percent of simulations, indicating the best pick on this match is the home side. The draw — as stated previously — doesn’t have much ‘added’ value, but is still an option considering how Chelsea performed in the first leg.
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