Everton hosts Fulham at Goodison Park this weekend as the two sides face off in Week 7 of Premier League action.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Everton: 1.80
• Draw: 4.11
• Fulham: 4.31
Spread
• Everton -0.5: 1.79
• Fulham +0.5: 2.16
Total
• OVER 3: 2.04
• UNDER 3: 1.86
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 4.11 — indicate there’s a 24 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 25 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the draw, but not much.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.8 – 1.75, in favor of Everton.
On Chelsea’s Transfer Radar: Aleksandar Mitrovic — the 24-year-old Serbian — has five goals in six league games this season and is supposedly on the radar of some big name clubs. “Mitrovic is more physical than Alvaro Morata and has more pace than Olivier Giroud,” said Jamie Redknapp, Sky Sports analyst. “As a successor to Didier Drogba and Diego Costa, Mitrovic could fit the bill.”
Last 6: Last 6: Everton heads into this match following back-to-back losses in EPL action vs Arsenal and West Ham. They have two losses, two draws, and two wins in their last six overall. Fulham enters this fixture following a 1-1 draw vs Watford. They also have two draws, two wins, and two losses in their last six.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last faced off in the Premier League back in March 2014. Everton won 3-1.
Projected Leaders
AccuScore sims suggest Mitrovic has the best probability to score for Fulham at a 60 percent chance. He averages 4.11 shots overall per sim, 1.64 shots on goal per, and 0.92 goals per sim.
For Everton, we’ll have our eyes on Theo Walcott who has a 34-to-35 percent chance to score. He averages 1.7 shots overall per sim, 0.73 shots on goal per, and 0.44 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Fulham +0.5.
Odds — at 2.16 — indicate there’s a 46.3 percent chance Fulham either wins this match or finishes in a draw. That happens in over 61 percent of AccuScore sims.
The majority of the side value in this match is on Fulham to be far more competitive than offshore odds suggest; the side value on Fulham is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
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