We’ve got a repeat of last year’s finals as Real Madris heads to Turin on Tuesday for a match against Juventus – a side that’s unbeaten in Europe at the Allianz Stadium since 2013-2014.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Dafabet Odds
1×2
• Juventus to win: 2.82
• Draw: 3.10
• Real Madrid to win: 2.54
Total
• OVER 2.5: 2.19
• UNDER 2.5: 1.74
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Dafabet odds are indicating that there’s about a 32 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 24 percent of matches, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.83 – 1.04, in favor of Real Madrid.
Injuries: Juventus will be without Medhi Benatia and Miralem Pjanic — both due to suspensions — while there are continuing injury concerns over Giorgio Chiellini and Alex Sandro. Real Madrid head into Tuesday’s match with no major injury concerns.
Head-to-Head: Real Madrid hasn’t been knocked out in the competition since Juventus defeated them three years ago in the semfinals.
Projected Leaders
Cristiano Ronaldo has close to a 56 percent chance of scoring, averaging about 4 shots overall per simulated match, 1.19 shots on goal, and 0.81 goals per sim. Second behind him for Real Madrid is Karim Benzema with a 28 percent chance of netting the ball, averaging 0.64 shots on goal per sim and 0.33 goals per sim.
For Juventus the leaders are projected to be Gonzalo Higuian and Paulo Dybala. Gihguian averages fewer shots overall and Dybala, fewer shots on goal, but more goals per sim — 0.34 to 0.31.
Analyst’s Pick
The OVER.
These two sides have met five previous times in the last five years, with both teams scoring in each of the five matches, four of which had two-plus goals from each side.
The OVER is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. At 2.19, the odds indicate there’s about a 45 percent chance the combined score goes OVER 2.5. Our sims have it going OVER in about 53 percent of matches, suggesting some added value on the the OVER.
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