The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Friday as the quarterfinals get under way with Uruguay and France matching up in the first match. In Uruguay and France we’ve arguable got one of the best defensive units matching up against one of the best attacks. Fans will be treated to a clash of styles in what’s expected to be a must-watch fixture.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Uruguay: 4.54
• Draw: 3.16
• France: 1.98
Spread
• Uruguay +0.5: 1.88
• France -0.5: 2.05
Total
• OVER 2: 1.97
• UNDER 2: 1.93
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.16 — indicate there’s a 31.6 percent chance the match ends in a draw (in regular time). There’s a draw in 32 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.17 – 1.14, in favor of Uruguay. .
Injury Concerns: Edinson Cavani was an absolute gem for Uruguay in their win over Portugal, but may be coming off the bench in this matchup vs France following an injury last time out. We’ll see either Cristhian Stuani or Maxi Gomez in his spot in the starting 11, with a slight chance of an extra midfielder in the lineup instead.
Cards and Consequences: France’s Blaise Matuidi will miss this match due to multiple yellow cards; we’ll most likely see Ousmane Dembele starting in his spot. Olivier Giroud, Corentin Tolisso, Paul Pogba and Pavard are all in danger of missing the following game should they get booked vs Uruguay.
Anchoring the Midfield: Keep an eye on 22-year-old defensive mid Lucas Torreira for Uruguay. Much of this game will be determined by how he — along with Matias Venico — anchor the midfield against France’s attacking forwards.
Betting Trends
• Uruguay have kept a clean sheet in their last 6 matches vs France in all competitions.
• UNDER 2.5 goals have hit in six of Uruguay’s last six matches against France in all competitions.
• France have won with a 1-goal margin in 5 of their last 6 FIFA World Cup matches.
• Uruguay are unbeaten in this year’s World Cup and have recorded a clean sheet in three of their four matches.
Projected Leaders
Antoine Greizmann and Mbappe lead the way for France in AccuScore sims, each with over a 31 percent chance to net the ball. Greizmann averages 1.76 shots overall per sim, 0.75 shots on goal per, and 0.39 goals per sim; Mbappe averages more shots overall with 1.86 per sim, but fewer goals per sim with 0.38.
Luis Suárez has close to a 43 percent chance to score; he averages 2.81 shots overall per sim, 1.27 shots on goal per, and 0.56 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Uruguay +0.5
AccuScore simulation data has more value on La Celeste than do most oddsmakers. Whereas the odds — at 4.54 — indicate there’s a 22 percent chance Uruguay wins the match. AccuScore simulations, however, have them winning close to 35 percent of simulations. We’re always interested when oddsmakers and AccuScore sim data are on different sides of a pick.
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