The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Saturday in Day 2 of quarterfinal action as England and Sweden face off in in Samara Arena. England head into the match following a win over Colombia in penalties (4-3); Sweden enter the quarterfinals with a 1-0 win over Switzerland.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Sweden: 4.84
• Draw: 3.32
• England: 1.88
Spread
• Sweden +0.5: 1.98
• England -0.5: 1.95
Total
• OVER 2.5: 2.28
• UNDER 2.5: 1.68
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.32 — indicate there’s a 30 percent chance the match ends in a draw (in regular time). There’s a draw in just 22 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.01 – 0.75, in favor of England.
Tired Legs: Health and endurance will be key for England after they went to a penalty shootout vs Colombia. Watch for some fresh legs from the likes of Marcus Rashford, Danny Rose and Ruben Loftus-Cheek.
Quality Over Quantity: Sweden got the win vs Switzerland despite having less possession and fewer shots on goal. They got one, though, and that’s all that matters.
Welcome Back: Sweden gets Sebastian Larsson back in the lineup after he missed the match vs Switzerland with a suspension. He’ll most likely join the starting eleven with Gustav Svensson potentially returning to the bench. On the other hand, they’ll be without defender Mikael Lustig; he is suspended following his booking vs the Swiss.
Head-to-Head: England and Sweden have met 24 times to date, with the results being fairly even. England have won eight games, lost seven, and finished in a draw in nine.
Betting Trends
• Sweden have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six World Cup matches. England, interestingly enough, are the only team left in the tournament that have yet to keep a clean sheet.
• England have defeated Sweden in just one of their last eight competitive matches.
Projected Leaders
Harry Kane is expected to continue his streak of brilliance with over a 63 percent chance to score. He averages 3.62 shots overall per sim, 1.36 shots on goal per, and 0.99 goals per sim. Raheem Sterling is second to Kane with a 29 percent chance to score for England.
Emil Forsberg and Marcus Berg are projected to have the best scoring opportunities for Sweden. Forsberg has a 17 percent chance to net the ball, averaging 2.57 shots overall per sim, 0.59 shots on goal per, and 0.19 goals per sim; Berg averages 1.72 shots overall and 0.17 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
OVER 2.5.
The odds — at 2.28 — indicate there’s a 44 percent chance the total combined score hits the OVER. That happens in 51-plus percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the pic. THe OVER is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
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