The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Tuesday as Argentina and Nigeria go head-to-head in Group D action. After two rounds of group action, the 2014 runners-up in Argentina are facing a must-win situation vs Nigeria following a 1-1 draw vs Iceland and a 3-0 loss to Croatia.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Nigeria: 6.89
• Draw: 4.50
• Argentina: 1.51
Spread
• Nigeria +1: 2.02
• Argentina -1: 1.92
Total
• OVER 2.5: 1.83
• UNDER 2.5: 2.09
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 4.50 — indicate there’s a 22.2 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in in just 13 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.7 – 0.5, in favor of Argentina.
Wake Up: The two Argentina players with the fewest touches in the first half vs Croatia were Sergio Aguero (7) and Lionel Messi (20). These guys need to step it up in some fashion if they want Argentina’s World Cup journey to continue past the group stage.
Winning Time: Messi has had eight more shot attempts than any other player on his side (12), but has struggled to be the successful attacker the world has grown accustomed to.
La Albiceleste: With zero wins, two draws, and two losses, Argentina are currently in the midst of their longest winless run in World Cup finals history.
Making History: Nigeria hasn’t won consecutive World Cup matches in 20 years; a win vs Argentina not only makes history, but also ensures a place in the knockout stages for the fourth time in the nation’s history.
Musa Dominating: Nigeria’s Ahmed Musa is now the country’s all-time top scorer in World Cup games with four goals.
Head-to-Head: Argentina have won all four of the games between these two sides in World Cup history.
Projected Leaders
Both Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero have over a 60 percent chance to net the ball vs Nigeria. Messi averages 5.4 shots overall per simulated match, 1.52 shots on goal per, and 0.97 goals per sim. Aguero averages 3.36 shots overall per sim, 1.22 shots on goal per and 0.95 goals per sim.
For Nigeria, the leaders are projected to be Kelechi Iheanacho and Victor Moses. Both Iheanacho and Moses average 1.14 shots overall per sim, but Iheanacho averages slightly more goals per sim — 0.11 vs 0.09. As a result, he has a slightly higher probability to score in this match.
Analyst’s Pick
Argentina to win.
The odds — at 1.51 — indicate there’s a 66 percent chance Argentina wins this match. They win over 82 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting quite a bit of added value.
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