The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Wednesday as defending champion Germany takes on South Korea in Group F action. The reigning champs haven’t looked as dominant as most would expect, but the recent magic of Marco Reus reminded everyone just how dangerous this side can be.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• South Korea: 15.31
• Draw: 7.22
• Germany: 1.21
Spread
• South Korea +1.5: 2.17
• Germany -1.5: 1.78
Total
• OVER 3: 1.80
• UNDER 3: 2.11
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 7.22 — indicate there’s a 13.8 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in in 21 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2 – 0.72, in favor of Germany.
Potential Changes: Germany defender Jerome Boateng will miss this match following his red card vs Sweden. Mats Hummels is currently expected to play, but will be doing so with a neck injury. Germany may also have Ilkay Gundogan in the starting lineup with the doubts surround Sebastian Rudy and the broken nose he suffered vs Sweden.
Goals Galore: Germany have scored 2 or more goals in 11 of their last 12 FIFA World Cup matches. OVER 2.5 goals has hit in eight of Germany’s last nine FIFA World Cup matches.
Not on Track: Korea is in the midst of their worst run in World Cup history — having lost four matches in a row for the first time since between 1986-and-1990.
Projected Leaders
Marco Reus leads the way for Germany in AccuScore simulations with a 37.2 percent chance to score. He averages 2.5 shots overall per sim, 0.9 shots on goal per, and 0.47 goals per sim.
Son Heung-Min, as expected, is projected to lead the way for South Korea. He averages 2.56 shots overall per sim, 1.07 shots on goal per, and 0.45 goals per sim with a 35.6 percent chance to net the ball.
Analyst’s Pick
Germany to win.
While there is some added value on the draw, there’s just too much data siding on the favorites here. The odds — at 1.21 — indicate there’s close to an 83 percent chance Germany wins this match. They win over 65 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting less but still very convincing confidence on the favorite.
Germany has won all five of its World Cup games vs teams from Asia. In those five games, Germany has scored 19 goals and have kept a clean sheet in their last three.
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