West Ham United get set to host Southampton at London Staduim in a crucial EPL match in which both teams are in a must-win situation. West Ham have lost in four of their last five Premiere League fixtures, but have a nice opportunity against a Southampton team that have managed just one win in their last 17.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
• West Ham to win: 2.90
• Draw: 3.26
• Southampton to win: 2.64
• OVER 2: 1.68
• UNDER 2: 2.28
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.26 — indicate there’s about a 30.7 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims have a draw in about 31.7 percent of matches, suggesting some — but not much — added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.19 – 0.81, in favor of West Ham.
Picking the Home Team to Win: West Ham wins about 44 percent of simulated matchups. The odds — at 2.90 — indicate about a 65 percent chance of winning. While AccuScore definitely agrees on West Ham as the favorite, there’s just not enough value on the pick.
Head-to-Head: There are zero draws in the last five matchups between the two sides; Southampton has won 3, West Ham with 2.
Carrillo leads the way for Southampton in sims, averaging 0.55 shots on goal and 0.26 goals per sim. He has about a 22-to-23 percent chance of netting the ball Saturday.
Arnautovic has the highest probability of scoring on behalf of West Ham, with about a 29-to-30 percent chance of scoring. He averages 1.66 shots per sim, 0.75 shots on goal and 0.35 goals.
We’ve got two options here — the home side, West Ham, winning, or a draw. The odds/probabilities indicate there’s more value on the draw.
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