West Ham United get set to host Southampton at London Staduim in a crucial EPL match in which both teams are in a must-win situation. West Ham have lost in four of their last five Premiere League fixtures, but have a nice opportunity against a Southampton team that have managed just one win in their last 17.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Dafabet Odds
1×2
• West Ham to win: 2.90
• Draw: 3.26
• Southampton to win: 2.64
Total
• OVER 2: 1.68
• UNDER 2: 2.28
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.26 — indicate there’s about a 30.7 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims have a draw in about 31.7 percent of matches, suggesting some — but not much — added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.19 – 0.81, in favor of West Ham.
Picking the Home Team to Win: West Ham wins about 44 percent of simulated matchups. The odds — at 2.90 — indicate about a 65 percent chance of winning. While AccuScore definitely agrees on West Ham as the favorite, there’s just not enough value on the pick.
Head-to-Head: There are zero draws in the last five matchups between the two sides; Southampton has won 3, West Ham with 2.
Projected Leaders
Carrillo leads the way for Southampton in sims, averaging 0.55 shots on goal and 0.26 goals per sim. He has about a 22-to-23 percent chance of netting the ball Saturday.
Arnautovic has the highest probability of scoring on behalf of West Ham, with about a 29-to-30 percent chance of scoring. He averages 1.66 shots per sim, 0.75 shots on goal and 0.35 goals.
Analyst’s Pick
The draw.
We’ve got two options here — the home side, West Ham, winning, or a draw. The odds/probabilities indicate there’s more value on the draw.
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