Tottenham — currently on a six-game win streak in Premier League action — get set to host Manchester City in one of the marquee matchups this weekend. The home side will look to secure all three points following City’s recent losses, including the recent one against Liverpool.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Dafabet Odds
1×2
• Man City to win: 2.76
• Draw: 3.64
• Tottenham to win: 2.54
Total
• OVER 3: 1.87
• UNDER 3: 2.03
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.64 — indicate there’s about a 27.5 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 30 percent of matches, suggesting some added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.37 – 1.19, in favor of Man City.
Head-to-Head: Both sides have scored in four of the last five meetings between these teams. Not a bad wager to take both sides scoring at 1:2 odds in most books.
Spurs with the Momentum: Tottenham are on a six-game Premier League win streak, with victories over sides like Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Huddersfield, Bournemouth, Chelsea and Stoke City. They’re practically guaranteed a top-four finish, and they still have an outside shot at finishing in the top two. The Spurs have lost just once at Wembley in fifteen league games this season.
Projected Leaders
Raheem Sterling leads Man City in the sims, averaging 1.5 shots overall per sim, 0.57 shots on goal per sim, and 0.28 goals per sim; he has about a 25 percent chance of netting the ball.
Heung-Min Son has the highest probability of scoring for Tottenham, with about a 30 percent chance of scoring, but Christian Eriksen averages the most shots on goal. Eriken has about a 25 percent chance of scoring.
Analyst’s Pick
The UNDER.
The pick is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The odds — at 2.03 — indicate there’s about a 49 percent chance the total score hits the UNDER; our sims have the UNDER in about 54 percent of simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick.
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