We’ve got a must-watch matchup this Saturday as Manchester United and Liverpool face off, sitting in the No. 2 and No. 3 spot of the EPL standings, respectively.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Win
• Manchester United to win: 2.68
• Draw: 3.43
• Liverpool to win: 2.74
Total
• OVER 2.5: 1.94
• UNDER 2.5: 1.96
Key Betting Trends
• Man U have won 12 of their last 15 Premier League home matches.
• UNDER 2.5 goals has hit in the last six matches between these two sides.
• Man U has scored at least two goals in their last three home matches.
What to Watch For
Injury Update: Andrew Robertson missed Liverpool’s 0-0 draw vs Porto Tuesday night and his status remains doubtful for Saturday’s visit to Old Trafford.
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.43 — indicate about a 29 percent chance of happening. Our sims have a draw in about 24.5 percent of matches, suggesting to stay away from the draw pick.
The average score in sims is 2.03 – 1.28, in favor of Man U.
Better Defense from the Red Devils: Eric Bailly will more than likely start this weekend — his first start since November. Jose Mourinho made it clear to the media this week he was not happy with the team’s defense Monday night against Crystal Palace (3-2 victory). As such, watch for Bailly to make an impact immediately as his side looks to hold Liverpool to no more than 1 goal.
Betting on the Total: AccuScore sims indicate a 63 percent chance of the total combined score going OVER 2.5. The OVER — at 1.94 — indicates a 51.5 percent chance of happening. .
Head-to-Head: Liverpool have not been beaten in their last five matches against Man U in all competitions.
Projected Leaders
Ghaly averages the most shots overall for Liverpool in sims, at 3.4 per sim. He has close to a 40 percent chance of scoring, averaging 0.5 goals per sim.
For Man U, it’s none other than Lukaku who has the highest probability of netting the ball. He averages 0.52 goals per sim, with a 41 percent chance of scoring.
Analyst’s Pick
Man U.
The odds — at 2.68 — indicate Manchester United have about a 37 percent chance of winning. They, however, win 53 percent of simulated matchups. AccuScore sim data would have listed Man U winning at 1.87, indicating a whole lot of value at 2.68.
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