Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Southampton FC: 1.86
• Draw: 3.48
• Burnley FC: 4.87
Spread
• Southampton -0.5: 1.88
• Burnley +0.5: 2.05
Total
• OVER 2: 1.77
• UNDER 2: 2.14
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.48 — indicate there’s a 28.9 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in close to 34 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.1 – 0.59, in favor of Southampton.
Betting on the Total: The odds — at 2.14 — indicate there’s a 46.7 percent chance the total combined score stays below 2 goals. The average combined score after 10,000 simulations is 1.69 goals. The total goes UNDER in 49 percent of simulations.
Redmond in Action: Keep an eye on Southampton’s Nathan Redmond. He wasn’t always featured last season, but looking ahead, he should be hitting his prime. Redmond averages 1.56 shots overall per sim, 0.60 shots on goal per and 0.15 goals per sim, with a 13 percent chance to score according to AccuScore sims.
Head-to-Head: These two sides have faced off a total of 56 times in their history. Southampton have won 20 compared to Burnley’s 21, the remaining 15 resulting in draws. They last played in February 2018, a match that ended in a 1-1 draw.
Projected Leaders
Ashley Barnes has the best chance to score for Burnley, according to AccuScore sim data. He averages 1.44 shots overall per sim, 0.49 shots on goal per, and 0.22 goals per sim, with approximately a 20 percent chance to score.
For Southampton, we’re expecting Charlie Austin to net the ball. He averages 2.28 shots overall per sim, 1.35 shots on goal per, and 0.36 goals per sim, with a 30 percent chance to score.
Analyst’s Pick
The Draw.
AccuScore side value is tough to ignore.
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