We’ve got an intriguing matchup at Molineux this weekend as Wolverhampton and Chelsea go head-to-head. Both sides are looking to get back on track with a win as the Wolves lost 3-2 on the road vs Everton last time out, and Chelsea finished in a 2-2 home draw vs Sheffield United.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Picks

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Wolverhampton: 3.00
• Draw: 3.39
• Chelsea: 2.49

Spread
• Wolverhampton +0.5: 1.79
• Chelsea -0.5: 2.17

Total
• Over 2.5: 2.01
• Under 2.5: 1.89

What to Watch For

Draw: Picks indicate there’s a 29.5 percent chance this matchup ends in a draw. That happens in under 28 percent of simulations, suggesting no added value on the pick.

The projected score is 1.41 – 1.31, in favor of Chelsea.

Long Balls: The Wolves are No. 4 in the league this season in long balls, suggesting their strategy is leaning towards team play as opposed to individual drives.

Team Play: Similar note on team play for Chelsea as they’re No. 3 in the league this season in total passes. Much tougher to defend when teams are attacking via passes.

Head to Head: When these two sides last matched up in Premier League (March 10, 2019), they finished in a 1-1 draw.

Projected Leaders

Tammy Abraham is projected to lead Chelsea with 2.01 shots overall per sim, 1.01 shots on goal per and 0.64 goals per sim. He has a 47-to-48 percent chance to score.

Raúl Jiménez has a 33-to-34 percent chance to score for Wolverhampton. He averages 2.39 shots overall per sim, 0.84 shots on goal per and 0.41 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Wolverhampton +0.5

Wolverhampton either win or finish in a draw in 61+ percent of simulations.

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