Aston Villa will look to bounce back at home this Sunday afternoon when they host Leicester City at Villa Park. Villa is coming off a 2-1 mid-week loss on the road vs Chelsea, but there is some momentum as they have lost just once at home in their last six fixtures there.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)

Aston Villa: 4.49
Draw: 4.05
Leicester City: 1.78

Spread
Aston Villa +0.5: 2.19
Leicester City -0.5: 1.77

Total
Over 3: 2.06
Under 3: 1.84

Key Points to Consider

Starting XI: Villa should get a nice little boost with Guilbert returning to the starting lineup after serving his suspension.

Defense: Leicester, so far at least, have the best defense in the league as the recorded another clean sheet their last time out. And this was without a full, healthy lineup as Childwell was out. We’re expecting their full 4-1-4-1 lineup this Sunday.

Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action back on Jan. 16, 2016 when they finished in a 1-1 draw.

Projected Leaders

Jamie Vardy has a 58-to-59 percent chance to score Leicester City. He averages 2.62 shots overall per sim, 1.41 shots on goal per and 0.89 goals per sim.

For Aston Villa, Wesley Moraes has a 26-to-27 percent chance to score. Moraes averages 0.99 shots overall per sim, 0.61 shots on goal per and 0.31 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Leicester City -0.5

Four-star (out of four) hot trend pick. Average margin of victory in sims is Leicester +1.10 goals.

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