Japan came from behind to shock Germany and beat them 2-1 on Wednesday. Japan played with poise, pace and they were relentless when they had chances to attack. This is obviously a must-win game for Germany. Spain crushed Costa Rica 7-0 and they could have won by more goals.
The player to watch in this game is Jamal Musiala, who has nine goals and six assists in 14 Bundesliga games with Bayern Munich this season. AccuScore gives Jamal Musiala a 21.5 percent chance to score against Spain. He has 56 SCA and 12 GCA in 14 Bundesliga games with Bayern Munich.
FBRef defines SCA as “the two offensive actions leading directly to a shot, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” GCA is “the two offensive actions leading directly to a goal, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls.” Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Picks
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Spain 2.41
• Germany 2.90
• Draw 3.70
Spread
• Spain 0, -0.5 (1.87)
• Germany 0, +0.5 (2.05)
Total
• Over 2.5, 3 (2.11)
• Under 2.5, 3 (1.82)
Key Points to Consider
Head-to-Head: These two teams last met in UEFA Nations League action on November 17, 2020 and Spain won 6-0.
Projected Leaders
For Spain, Marco Asensio has a 16.9 percent chance to score. He averages 1 shot overall per sim, 0.68 shots on goal per and 0.18 goals per sim.
For Germany, Jamal Musiala has a 21.5 percent chance to net the ball. He averages 0.84 shots overall per sim, 0.46 shots on goal per and 0.24 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Spain looked dominant in the first game but you have to consider that it was against Costa Rica. Don’t judge these teams based on their last results. Spain is not as good while Germany is not as bad.
Germany 2.90
Two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick on Germany in this one. Average score in simulations is Germany 1.15 to Spain 0.8.
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