After a somewhat surprising road defeat to Leicester, Tottenham gets back home to host Southampton this week.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Picks

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Tottenham: 1.47
• Draw: 4.85
• Southampton: 6.91

Spread
• Tottenham -1: 1.75
• Southampton +1: 2.21

Total
• Over 2.5: 1.60
• Under 2.5: 2.42

What to Watch For

Draw: There’s a 20-to-21 percent chance this match ends in a draw. That happens in 22.2 percent of simulations, suggesting some – but not much — added side value.

The projected score is 2.44 – 1.4, in favor of Tottenham.

Last 6 Overall: Tottenham have just one win in their last six overall, with 3 draws and 2 losses. Southampton have 4 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw in their last six overall.

Team Play: Tottenham are No. 4 in the league so far with 130 crosses. They are No. 3 in the league in terms of passes.

Head to Head: These two sides last met in Premier League in March 2019 when Southampton actually won, 2-1.

Projected Leaders

Che Adams has a 38 percent chance to score for Southampton. Adams averages 2.86 shots overall per sim, 1.12 shots on goal per and 0.49 goals per sim.

Harry Kane has a 62+ percent chance to score for Tottenham. He averages 4.74 shots overall per sim, 2.17 shots on goal per and 0.99 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

The Over.

The OVER is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick. The average combined goal total in simulations is 3.84 goals. OVER on 2.5 or 3 would be suggested.

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