Newcastle are No. 19 of 20 in the Premier League standings currently and will look for some sort of a season reset as they take on Brighton this weekend. Brighton sit in the No. 13 spot, six points better than their opponents.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Newcastle United: 2.24
• Draw: 3.20
• Brighton & Hove Albion: 3.69
Spread
• Newcastle -0.5: 2.26
• Brighton & Hove Albion +0.5: 1.72
Total
• Over 2: 1.84
• Under 2: 2.06
What to Watch For
Betting on the Total: Odds — at 2.06 — indicate there’s a 48 percent chance the total combined score stays below 2 combined goals. That happens in about 51 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the pick. The UNDER is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick.
The average combined score in AccuScore sims is 1.66 goals.
Strong Start: Watch for a fast start from Newcastle, playing with a sense of desperation.
“They’re going to start the game very fast and we have to try to control the pace,” Brighton captain Bruno said this week in preparation for the weekend’s match. “Their fans will be behind them, but if they don’t play well, they’re going to be on them.”
Head-to-Head: These two sides last faced off back in Sep. 24, 2017 when Brighton got the 1-0 win behind a 51′ goal from Tomer Hemed.
Recent Matchups: These two sides have had some very close matchups over the past couple years, both in the Championship and in the Premier League. Newcastle won both matchups in the Championship, but Brighton got a win and a draw in Premier League action last year.
Projected Leaders
Glenn Murray leads the way for Brighton in AccuScore sims with a 32 percent chance to score. He averages 1.09 shots overall per sim, 0.53 shots on goal per and 0.38 goals per sim.
Yoshinori Muto has a 20 percent chance to score for Newcastle. He averages 1.13 shots overall per sim, 0.69 shots on goal per and 0.23 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
The draw.
Odds — at 3.20 — indicate there’s a 31 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in over 35 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 0.90 – 0.76, in favor of Newcastle.
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