Newcastle looks to bounce back at home following a 2-0 road loss vs Aston Villa their last time out as they host Manchester City this Saturday afternoon at St. James’ Park.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Picks

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Newcastle United: 13.93
• Draw: 7.23
• Manchester City: 1.221

Spread
• Newcastle United +2: 1.92
• Manchester City -2: 2.01

Total
• Over 3.5: 2.17
• Under 3.5: 1.75

Key Points to Consider

Last 6: Newcastle, coming off the road loss vs Aston Villa, have 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw in their last six overall. Man City, coming off a mid-week 1-1 draw vs Shak Donetsk in UEFA Champions League, have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last six overall.

Some Numbers: Newcastle are No. 2 in the league current in terms of total clearances. They are just No. 18, however, in total tackles.

Head-to-Head: These two sides last matched up in Premier League action on Jan. 29, 2019 when Newcastle won, 2-1.

Projected Leaders

Sergio Aguero has a 57+ percent chance to score this weekend for Man City. He averages 3.8 shots overall per sim, 1.2 shots on goal per and 0.86 goals per sim.

For Newcastle, Ciaran Clark has a 21-to-22 percent chance to score vs Man City. He averages 0.54 shots overall per sim, 0.31 shots on goal per and 0.24 goals per sim. Teammate Jonjo Shelve, Joelinton, Allan Saint-Maximin, and Miguel Almiron all average more shot attempts overall per sim, but are less efficient.

Analyst’s Pick

Newcastle to cover.

By no means are we saying that Newcastle will win this matchup, or even force a draw. But we’re more confident in them losing by one or two goals, than we are of them losing by 3 or more. The added/side value on this pick – for the match to stay more competitive than picks makers are suggesting – is a four-star (out of four) hot trend pick.

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