Sunday’s slate features Everton and Arsenal going head-to-head at Goodison Park. AccuScore sims and offshore picks have some different things to say about this matchup.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Picks

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Everton FC: 3.20
• Draw: 3.71
• Arsenal FC: 2.23

Spread
• Everton FC +0.5: 1.75
• Arsenal FC -0.5: 2.21

Total
• Over 3: 2.11
• Under 3: 1.80

What to Watch For

Draw: There’s a 27 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 30 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the draw.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.3 – 1.23, in favor of Everton.

Last 6: Everton, coming off a 2-0 road win vs West Ham, have 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw in their last 6 overall. Arsenal, coming off a 3-0 home win vs Rennes in Europa League action, have 4 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw in their last 6 overall.

Goal Scorers: Arsenal have two players (Aubameyang, Lacazette) who have more goals this season (17, 13) than Everton’s leading scorer in Sigurdsson (12 goals).

Head to Head: These two sides last met in Premier League action back on Sep. 23, 2018 when Arsenal won, 2-0. Everton last defeated Arsenal in league action in Dec. 2016.

Projected Leaders

Alexandre Lacazette has a 32 percent chance to score for Arsenal. He averages 1.87 shots overall per sim, 0.81 shots on goal per and 0.38 goals per sim.

Gylfi Sigurdsson has a 32 percent chance to score for Everton. he averages 2.2 shots overall per sim, 0.8 shots on goal per and 0.39 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Everton to win.

It’s a bold pick, but AccuScore sims have a different ‘favorite’ in this match than do offshore picks. There’s a 31.3 percent chance Everton win this match. They win about 37 percent of AccuScore sims by an average margin of victory of +0.7 goals. The safest pick would be Everton +0.5; even in a draw, then, you win.