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Sunday’s slate features Everton and Arsenal going head-to-head at Goodison Park. AccuScore sims and offshore picks have some different things to say about this matchup.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Everton FC: 3.20
• Draw: 3.71
• Arsenal FC: 2.23
• Everton FC +0.5: 1.75
• Arsenal FC -0.5: 2.21
• Over 3: 2.11
• Under 3: 1.80
Draw: There’s a 27 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 30 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.3 – 1.23, in favor of Everton.
Last 6: Everton, coming off a 2-0 road win vs West Ham, have 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw in their last 6 overall. Arsenal, coming off a 3-0 home win vs Rennes in Europa League action, have 4 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw in their last 6 overall.
Goal Scorers: Arsenal have two players (Aubameyang, Lacazette) who have more goals this season (17, 13) than Everton’s leading scorer in Sigurdsson (12 goals).
Head to Head: These two sides last met in Premier League action back on Sep. 23, 2018 when Arsenal won, 2-0. Everton last defeated Arsenal in league action in Dec. 2016.
Alexandre Lacazette has a 32 percent chance to score for Arsenal. He averages 1.87 shots overall per sim, 0.81 shots on goal per and 0.38 goals per sim.
Gylfi Sigurdsson has a 32 percent chance to score for Everton. he averages 2.2 shots overall per sim, 0.8 shots on goal per and 0.39 goals per sim.
Everton to win.
It’s a bold pick, but AccuScore sims have a different ‘favorite’ in this match than do offshore picks. There’s a 31.3 percent chance Everton win this match. They win about 37 percent of AccuScore sims by an average margin of victory of +0.7 goals. The safest pick would be Everton +0.5; even in a draw, then, you win.