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This Sunday’s Premier League slate features a few fairly lopsided matchups, but there’s still some value in the Watford-Chelsea fixture at Stamford Bridge.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Chelsea FC: 1.44
• Draw: 5.05
• Watford FC: 7.40
• Chelsea FC -1: 1.65
• Watford FC +1: 2.38
• Over 3: 2.04
• Under 3: 1.86
Draw: There’s a 19.8 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 22 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.87 – 0.70, in favor of Chelsea.
Last 6: Chelsea, fresh off a 1-1 draw vs Manchester United, have 3 wins, 1 loss and 2 draws in their last 6 overall. Watford, coming off a 2-1 home loss to Wolverhampton, have 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw in their last 6.
Showing Off: Interestingly enough, there have been rumors over the last few weeks that Chelsea may be a landing spot for Watford star, Roberto Pereyra. Keep an eye on him this match, as it feels almost like a tryout.
Pereyra has a 13 percent chance to score this weekend. He averages ~1 shot overall per sim, 0.36 shots on goal per and 0.14 goals per sim.
Head to Head: These two sides last met in Premier League action on Dec. 26, 2018 when Chelsea won, 2-1. Watford won the matchup prior to that, 4-1, back on Feb. 5, 2018.
Andre Gray has a 13 percent chance to net the ball for Watford this weekend. Gray averages 0.8 shots overall per sim, 0.33 shots on goal per and 0.14 goals per sim.
Gonzalo Higuaín has a 42-to-43 percent chance to score for Chelsea this weekend. Higuaín averages 2.68 shots overall per sim, 1.07 shots on goal per and 0.56 goals per sim.
There’s a 53.7 percent chance the total combined score in this match stays under 3 goals. That happens in 53 percent of AccuScore simulations, a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. The average combined score in simulations is 2.57 goals.