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We’ve got a marquee matchup Sunday at Stamford Bridge as Chelsea and Leicester City go head-to-head, both looking for their first win of the season.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Chelsea FC: 1.83
• Draw: 3.70
• Leicester City: 4.70
Spread
• Chelsea FC -1: 2.56
• Leicester City +1: 1.57
Total
• Over 2.5: 2.01
• Under 2.5: 1.89
Draw: There’s a about a 27 percent chance this weekend’s match ends in a draw. That happens in 25 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added value on the pick.
The projected score is 1.75 – 1.37, in favor of Chelsea.
Season Prediction: Heading into the season, Chelsea was projected by FiveThirtyEight to finish No. 4 in the standings. Just ahead of Manchester United. They were given just a 3 percent chance to win the Premier League, though.
Formation Change: Leicester City reverted back to a 4-3-3 in Week 1 that didn’t yield great results offensively. James Maddison averaged 2.8 key passes per game last season; last weekend, he had just two. Vardy averaged 2.3 shots per match last season; he had zero shots in last week’s draw.
Head to Head: These two sides last met in Premier League action in May 2019 when they finished in a scoreless draw.
Jamie Vardy has a 36-to-37 percent chance to score for Leicester City. He averages 1.62 shots overall per sim, 0.80 shots on goal per and 0.46 goals per sim.
Tammy Abraham has a 49-to-50 percent chance to net the ball this weekend. He averages 2.61 shots overall per sim, 1.34 shots on goal per and 0.69 goals per sim.
The Over
There’s a 49.7 percent chance the total combined score hits 3 goals. The average combined scores in simulations is 3.12 goals. This is a three-star (out of four) hot trend pick.
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