The No.15 and 16-ranked teams in the Premier League meet this Saturday in a match where AccuScore data is showing some value when compared to offshore picks.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Burnley FC: 2.77
• Draw: 3.35
• Southampton FC: 2.70
Total
• Over 2.5: 2.11
• Under 2.5: 1.80
Draw: There’s a 29.8 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 29.5 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.38 – 1.17, in favor of Southampton.
Own Goals: Southampton lead the league in own goals for the 2018-2019 season with 3.
Cards Galore: Southampton and Burnley are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in yellow cards in the 2018-2019 season.
Head to Head: These two sides last met in August of 2018 when they finished in a 0-0 draw. The last two matchups have finished in draws.
Danny Ings has a 41 percent chance to score for Southampton. He averages 3.06 shots overall per sim, 1.43 shots on goal per and 0.53 goals per sim.
Ashley Barnes has a 28-to-29 percent chance to net the ball for Burnley. Barnes averages 1.47 shots overall per sim, 0.62 shots on goal per and 0.33 goals per sim.
Southampton to win.
There’s a 37 percent chance Southampton win this match. They win over 40 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the pick.
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