Brighton & Hove get set to host Watford this weekend at American Express Community Stadium.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Brighton & Hove: 2.77
• Draw: 3.26
• Watford: 2.76
• Over 2, 2.5: 1.95
• Under 2, 2.5: 1.95
Draw: There’s a 30.7 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 30.1 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.36 – 0.82, in favor of Brighton & Hove.
Big Chances Missed: Watford leads the league in big chances missed, according to the official EPL website. Watford has 43 big chances missed, with Man City No. 2 behind them with 41. Opportunities are created often, but not capitalized on enough.
Head to Head: These two sides last met in August of 2018 when Watford won, 2-0 behind goals from Roberto Pereyra. Watford had a 1-0 lead at halftime.
Leading the Way: Roberto Pereyra — on the season — averages 0.26 goals per match. He has 6 goals in 23 appearances, with five-of-six goals coming off his right foot. Of his 46 shots overall, 16 have been on target this season.
Pereyra has a 16-to-17 percent chance to score for Watford. He averages 1.09 shots overall per sim, 0.40 shots on goal per and 0.18 goals per sim.
Glenn Murray has a 46-to-47 percent chance to score for Brighton. He averages 1.44 shots overall per sim, 0.78 shots on goal per and 0.61 goals per sim.
Brighton & Hove to win.
Brighton winning is a 3-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. They have a 36 percent chance to win this match, but they win over 48 percent of AccuScore sims — suggesting quite a bit of side value on the home side.