We’ve got a pair of teams looking to bounce back from back-to-back league losses as Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove match up this weekend at Vitality Stadium.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this match.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• AFC Bournemouth: 1.90
• Draw: 3.68
• Brighton & Hove Albion: 4.31
Spread
• Bournemouth -0.5: 1.89
• Brighton & Hove Albion +0.5: 2.04
Total
• Over 2.5: 1.94
• Under 2.5: 1.96
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 27 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in over 31 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.24 – 0.74, in favor of Bournemouth.
Last 6: Bournemouth has 5 losses and 1 win in their last six overall. The win came at home (2-1) vs Huddersfield. Brighton have 3 losses, 2 wins and 1 draw in their last six overall.
Fouls Galore: One thing to keep in mind is that Brighton & Hove — over their last 10 matches overall — average more than twice as many fouls per match than do Bournemouth. Brighton averages 8.8 fouls per match over their last 10 overall compared to just 4.2 for Bournemouth.
Head to Head: These two sides last met in Premier League action back in January of 2018. They finished in a 2-2 draw. Prior to that matchup, Bournemouth had four straight wins in any competition vs Brighton & Hove.
Projected Leaders
Glenn Murray has a 28 percent chance to score for Brighton & Hove. He averages 0.84 shots overall per sim, 0.42 shots on goal per, and 0.33 goals per sim.
Joshua King has close to a 32 percent chance to score for Bournemouth. He averages 2.18 shots overall per sim, 0.87 shots on goal per and 0.38 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Under 2.5
Odds indicate there’s a 51 percent chance the total combined score stays below 2.5 goals. That happens in over 68 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting quite a bit of added value on the pick. The UNDER is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick.
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