AFC Bournemouth and Newcastle United go head-to-head this weekend at Vitality Stadium. Both sides come in with some recent momentum.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Picks

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• AFC Bournemouth: 2.09
• Draw: 3.50
• Newcastle United: 3.76

Spread
• AFC Bournemouth -0.5: 2.06
• Newcastle United +0.5: 1.87

Total
• Over 2.5: 2.02
• Under 2.5: 1.88

What to Watch For

Draw: There’s a 28.6 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 25.8 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added side value on the draw.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.73 – 1.67, in favor of Bournemouth.

Last 5 Bournemouth are coming off a strong 2-0 win over Huddersfield Town last weekend, but that was their only win in their last five overall.

Building Momentum: In Newcastle’s recent 3-2 win over Everton, they got goals from Salomon Rondon and a pair from Ayoze Perez. It was an impressive effort after they fell down 0-2 early.

Head to Head: These two sides last met in Premier League action back in Nov. 2018 when Newcastle won, 2-1.

Projected Leaders

Miguel Almiron is projected to lead Newcastle with a 39 percent chance to score. He averages 3.11 shots per sim, 1.3 shots on goal per, and 0.49 goals per sim.

Callum Wilson is projected to lead Bournemouth with a 38 percent chance to score. He averages 2.07 shots overall, 0.87 shots on goal per and 0.48 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Newcastle United +0.5

There’s a 53.5 percent chance that Newcastle either win or draw. That happens in close to 74 percent of AccuScore sims. Our sim data projects Newcastle to be much more competitive than offshore books are saying, with the side value going heavily to Newcastle. 3-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick.