Real Madrid head to the legendary Johan Cruyff Arena for a Champions League matchup with Ajax in the first leg of their last-16 tie. Santiago Solari and Madrid have definitely had their ups and downs this seasons, but they enter Wednesday’s matchup in fine form.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Ajax Amsterdam: 3.86
• Draw: 4.07
• Real Madrid: 1.90
Spread
• Ajax Amsterdam +0.5: 2.04
• Real Madrid -0.5: 1.89
Total
• Over 3: 1.81
• Under 3: 2.09
Draw: There’s a 24.5 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 25.6 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the draw, but not much
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.79 – 1.35, in favor of Real Madrid.
Playing with Momentum: Madrid enters this match following a convincing 3-1 victory over rivals Atletico Madrid last Saturday. Ajax, on the other hand, enter the match following a 1-0 loss and just one win in four league games in 2019.
Potentially Making History: This is the first time Ajax is in the round of 16 since 2005-2006. They have never advanced past this point of the tournament.
Head to Head: These two sides have met just 12 times in the European Cup, with Madrid leading the series 7 wins to 4. Madrid is currently on a six-game win streak vs Ajax; Cristiano Ronaldo finished with a hat trick in the team’s last visit to Amsterdam back in 2012.
Karim Benzema has a 36-to-37 percent chance of scoring for Real Madrid. He averages 2.36 shots overall per sim, 0.78 shots on goal per and 0.46 goals per sim.
Hakim Ziyech has a 29 percent chance to score for Ajax. He averages 3.92 shots overall, 1.17 shots on goal per and 0.34 goals per sim.
Real Madrid to win.
There’s not much extra side or added value in this matchup. AccuScore sims do give Ajax a slightly better chance at staying competitive than do offshore picks, but not enough to enough to earn a wager. If looking for the most value, Ajax +0.5 is the pick based off AccuScore sims.
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