Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
• Man City to win in regular time: 1.23
• Draw: 6.90
• Stoke City to win in regular time: 13.55
• OVER 3: 1.81
• UNDER 3: 2.09
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 6.90 — indicate about a 14 percent chance of happening. Accuscore sims have a draw in about 11 percent of matches, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 2.88 – 0.64, in favor of Man City
Recent Trends: Stoke City have only lost one of their last six league games, but that doesn’t necessarily say they’ve been winning. They have won just one of their last ten league fixtures, having drawn four of their last five.
Head-to-Head: Man City won 7-2 back in October with six different players scoring. At the time, Stoke was under Mark Hughes. Since Paul Lambert took over, though, the Stoke has a much-improved defense, conceding just four goals in six games. Man City have won two of their last three visits to Stoke, both by a 4-1 margin.
Both sides have scored in just three of their last eleven matchups; four of the last six matchups between these two have gone OVER 2.5.
Aguero has over a 66 percent chance of scoring for Man City, averaging over two shots on goal per sim and over one goal per sim. He is up to 21 goals for the season, but just six of those have come on the road. Aguero hasn’t netted the ball in league play on the road since mid-December vs Swansea.
Shaqiri leads the way for Stoke in sims with 0.74 shots on goal per, and 0.19 goals per sim; he has a 17.5 percent chance of scoring.
The odds — at 1.23 — indicate Man City has an 81 percent chance of winning. AccuScore sim data has them winning close to 86 percent of sims, providing even more value on an already pricey pick.