The NBA Finals tip off this Thursday as the Toronto Raptors host the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of the best-of-seven series. Both sides got some days off prior to the series starting, let’s see if the fresh legs helped.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this Game 3 matchup.

Dafabet Picks

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Toronto Raptors: 1.89
• Golden State Warriors: 1.99

Spread
• Toronto Raptors -1.5: 2.01
• Golden State Warriors +1.5: 1.88

Total
• Over 214.5: 2.04
• Under 214.5: 1.86

What to Watch For

Trends with Days Off: As a home favorite this year, Toronto is just 24-26-0 against the spread (ATS). They are 0-1 ATS with 4+ days off. The Warriors are 6-4 ATS as road underdogs, and 0-1 ATS with 4+ days of rest.

Regular Season: The Warriors were 1-1 ATS vs the Raptors in the regular season, but Toronto did win both games. The first matchup of the regular season with into overtime with Kevin Durant in the lineup, but no Stephen Curry or Draymond Green. Toronto did win on the road in Oracle during the regular season without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup.

Game 1s: Since the 2014-2015 season, the Warriors are 18-1 straight up in Game 1s.

Playoff Kawhi: So far in the 2019 playoffs, Leonard is averaging 31.2 points on 51 percent shooting, 8.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game.

Projected Leaders

Stephen Curry is projected to lead Golden State with 31 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds and 1 steal. In simulations, he averages 6-of-11 from beyond the arc.

For Toronto, we’ll have our eyes on Kawhi Leonard who’s projected to finish with 24 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals.

Analyst’s Pick

Warriors +1.5

This is a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. While most offshore books have the home side as slight favorites, simulation data has the road team winning close to 55 percent of simulations. The average final score in sims is 112-109, in favor of Golden State.