Manchester United gets set to host Southampton Saturday at Old Trafford. With Man U sitting just 1 point behind Arsenal right now, watch for the home side to come out aggressive.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Manchester United: 1.57
• Draw: 4.31
• Southampton FC: 6.25
Spread
• Manchester United -1: 1.92
• Southampton FC +1: 1.98
Total
• Over 2.5, 3: 2.00
• Under 2.5, 3: 1.90
Draw: There’s a 23.2 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 21 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2 – 0.63, in favor of Manchester United.
Recent Matches at Home: United’s recent streak at home hasn’t been anything to write home about. They have 2 draws and 1 loss at home within the last month — albeit to strong competition like Liverpool and PSG. They did finish in a 2-2 draw vs Burnley at home on Jan. 29 also.
Cards Galore: Southampton is No. 2 in the Premier League with 54 yellow cards. United is No. 4 with 52 on the season. Expect some penalties in this matchup.
Head to Head: These two sides most recently met in the Premier League on Dec. 1, 2018 when they finished in a 2-2 draw. The last two matchups between these two sides finished in a draw.
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg has a 15-to-16 percent chance to score for Southampton. He averages 1.96 shots overall per sim, 0.7 shots on goal per and 0.17 goals per sim.
Romelu Lukaku has close to a 43 percent chance to score for United. He averages 2.52 shots overall per sim, 1.38 shots on goal per and 0.56 goals per sim.
Man U to win
There’s a 63 percent chance Man U gets the win; they win close to 69 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some rare added side value on the heavy favorites. This is a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick.
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