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Premier League action is back – finally. Liverpool and Norwich City kick things off at Anfield Friday as we head into the first weekend of action.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Liverpool FC: 1.17
• Draw: 9.30
• Norwich City: 14.92
• Liverpool -2, -2.5: 2.17
• Norwich City +2, +2.5: 1.78
• Over 3: 1.74
• Under 3: 2.19
Draw: There’s a about an 11 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 15 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.68 – 0.75, in favor of Liverpool.
Last 6: Liverpool have 2 draws, 1 win and 3 losses in their last six overall. The just finished in a 1-1 home draw vs Manchester City in the FA Community Shield on Aug. 4. Norwich haven’t had as much recent action as Liverpool, with 2 wins and four draws going back a few months. They last played in early May when they won on the road 2-1 vs Aston Villa in the Sky Bet Championship.
Coming Home, of Sorts: Norwich City’s Teemu Pukki made it clear this week that he’s excited for the season opener against Liverpool at Anfield. “It’s the best game to start with, and the one I was looking out for,” he said. “A lot of my family follow Liverpool, including my dad Tero and my uncle. In Finland I would say Liverpool is the biggest team, it started in the 1980s with the games on the television.” Liverpool will be a test for both Pukki and the Canaries, but all signs point to him being ready for it. In the past 12 months, Pukki has netted 36 goals in all competitions — and enters this matchup rested and ready to go.
Head to Head: These two sides last faced off in Premier League action on Jan. 23, 2016 when Liverpool won, 5-4. Norwich City last defeated Liverpool in league play on April 30, 1994.
Teemu Pukki has close to a 30 percent chance to score for Norwich City this Friday. Pukki averages 2.18 shots overall per sim, 0.84 shots on goal per and 0.35 goals per sim.
Sadio Mané and Mohamed Salah both have about a 55 percent chance to score this Friday. Mané averages slightly more goals per sim, but Salah averages quite a bit more shot attempts overall. Mané averages 2.95 shots overall, 1.45 shots on goal per and 0.84 goals per sim. Salah averages 4.28 shots overall per sim, 2.02 shots on goal per, and 0.80 goals per sim.
Norwich City +2.5
There’s a 56 percent chance Norwich City lose by fewer than three goals. The Canaries — on average — lose by a margin of 1.93 goals in AccuScore sims. While we definitely don’t expect Norwich to be competitive, we do project more side value on the draw than do offshore books. Being the first match of the season, both sides should be slightly rusty.