Burnley and Leicester City face off this Saturday afternoon at King Power Stadium.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Picks

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Leicester City: 1.54
• Draw: 4.33
• Burnley FC: 6.67

Spread
• Leicester City -1: 1.96
• Burnley FC +1: 1.97

Total
• Over 2.5: 1.95
• Under 2.5: 1.95

What to Watch For

Last 6: Following their 2-1 road loss vs Liverpool their last time out, Leicester have 4 wins and 2 losses in their last six overall. Burnley, coming off a 1-0 home win vs Everton, have 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last six overall.

Goals: Leicester City — with 14 on the season so far — are No. 4 in the league in total goals scored. Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea are No. 1, 2, 3.

Aggressive Defense: Leicester City are No.1 in the league with 177 tackles.

Head-to-Head: In last season’s matchup, Burnley won, 2-1.

Projected Leaders

For Burnley, Ashley Barnes has a 24 percent chance to score. He averages 1.55 shots overall per sim, 0.62 shots on goal per and 0.28 goals per sim.

For Leicester City, Jamie Vardy has a 41-to-42 percent chance to score. Vardy averages 1.98 shots overall per sim, 1.07 shots on goal per and 0.54 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Burnley +1

We definitely think Leicester City will win this matchup, but simulation data is projecting it to be a little closer than picks indicate. Side value on this matchup is on Burnley to stay within a goal.

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