Sunday’s Premier League slate this weekend features Crystal Palace and Chelsea going head-to-head at Selhurst Park.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this match.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Crystal Palace: 5.09
• Draw: 3.95
• Chelsea FC: 1.72
Spread
• Crystal Palace +0.5, +1: 1.97
• Chelsea FC -0.5, -1: 1.96
Total
• Over 2.5: 1.83
• Under 2.5: 2.07
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 25 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 28 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.48 – 1.07, in favor of Chelsea.
Last 6: Crystal Palace have 1 draw, 3 wins and 2 losses in their last six overall, with the most recent result being a 0-0 home draw vs Cardiff. Chelsea, coming off a 2-1 road win vs Watford, have 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last six.
Some Numbers to Consider: This season, Crystal Palace average 1.32 conceded goals vs 0.89 goals scored, while Chelsea score 1.94 goals per match on average while giving up 0.83 per.
Head to Head: These two sides met last month when Chelsea won 3-1. The last time Crystal Palace defeated Chelsea in Premier League play was back on October 14, 2017 (2-1).
Projected Leaders
Eden Hazard has a 41-to-42 percent chance of scoring for Chelsea. He averages 3.01 shots per sim, 1.35 shots on goal per and 0.54 goals per sim.
For Crystal Palace, we’ll have our eyes on Luka Milivojevic who has a 22 percent chance to score. He averages 1.47 shots overall per sim, 0.61 shots on goal per and 0.24 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Crystal Palace +0.5, +1
Odds indicate there’s a 49 percent chance Crystal Palace loses by a goal or less. They either win or finish in a draw in 54-to-55 percent of AccuScore sims. All the side value in AccuScore sims for this match is on Crystal Palace to be more competitive than offshore odds are indicating.
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