La Liga action continues Monday as Espanyol and Athletic Bilbao go head-to-head at RCDE Stadium. Espanyol will look to extend their home winning streak to five matches.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Espanyol Barcelona: 2.01
• Draw: 3.40
• Athletic Bilbao: 4.19
Spread
• Espanyol -0.5: 2.06
• Athletic Bilbao +0.5: 1.88
Total
• Over 2: 1.71
• Under 2: 2.23
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.40 — indicate there’s a 29.4 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in under 26 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.6 – 0.74, in favor of Espanyol.
Masters of the Draw: Athletic Bilbao have drawn seven of their 10 games this season, including all four road matches. Three of the draws ended 1-1, with the fourth 2-2.
Athletic Bilbao have not won a match this campaign since the opening weekend. Interestingly enough, they lost goalkeeper Kepa to Chelsea at the beginning of the season, and haven’t shown much effort to find a true replacement.
Home Dominance: Espanyol have won their last five home matches.
Recent Trends: Athletic Bilbao have won zero matches in their last 20 on the road vs Espanyol. They lost 13 of those, with seven draws.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last met in May of 2018 when Espanyol won 1-0.
Projected Leaders
Iker Muniain has a 20 percent chance to score for Athletic. He averages 0.70 shots overall per sim, 0.41 shots on goal per and 0.22 goals per sim.
Léo Baptistão has a 33 percent chance to score for Espanyol. He averages 2.76 shots overall per sim, 1.17 shots on goal per and 0.40 goals per sim.
Analyst’s Pick
Espanyol to win
Odds — at 2.01 — indicate Espanyol has about a 50 percent chance to win in regulation. They win close to 57 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on Espnayol. The side value makes it a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick.
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