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The NBA Finals now shift to the West Coast as the Golden State Warriors host the Toronto Raptors for Game 3. The Warriors tied the series at 1 game apiece after their 109-104 win in Game 2. Game 3 tips off Wednesday night at Oracle Arena.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this Game 3 matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Toronto Raptors: 2.98
• Golden State Warriors: 1.44
• Toronto Raptors +5.5: 1.98
• Golden State Warriors -5.5: 1.90
• Over 212.5: 1.90
• Under 212.5: 1.99
Total: There’s a 52-to-53 percent chance the total combined score goes over 212.5. That happens in 60 percent of simulations – a one-star (out of four) hot trend pick.
The average combined score in simulations is 218.5 points.
Going on a Run: Both the Raptors and Warriors struggled out of the gate in Game 2, but Golden State used a 27-3 run between the second and third quarters to take control of the game. Keep an eye on these big runs as they are a huge indicator in competitive matchups.
Back-to-Back Stat Stuffers: With Kevin Durant out, Warriors forward Draymond Green is asked to do a lot more. He followed his Game 1 triple-double up with another near triple-double in Game 2, finishing with 17 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals and 1 block.
Green is projected to finish Game 3 with 13 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists.
Shooting Struggles: As a whole, Toronto struggled from the field in Game 2. The Raptors shot just 37.2 percent from the field, and connected on fewer than 29 percent of their three-point attempts. Going on the road isn’t necessarily a recipe to fix shooting woes.
Toronto is projected to shoot 46% from the field in Game 3.
Stephen Curry is projected to lead Golden State with 37 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds and 2 steals. In simulations, he averages 7-of-13 from beyond the arc.
For Toronto, we’ll have our eyes on Kawhi Leonard who’s projected to finish with 25 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and 1 steal.
This is a 3-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. There’s a 52.6 percent chance the Warriors win this game by 6 points or more. That happens in exactly 52.6 percent of AccuScore sims. The Warriors win about 69-to-70 percent of simulated games.